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	<title>Europe Initiative Archive - Atlantik-Brücke e.V.</title>
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		<title>Milan taught us a lot about entrepreneurship</title>
		<link>https://www.atlantik-bruecke.org/en/milan-taught-us-a-lot-about-entrepreneurship/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[b.wild]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 Oct 2026 09:17:04 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Europe Initiative]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Teaser]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Delegation Trip]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Italy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Milan]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.atlantik-bruecke.org/?p=81980</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>Europe has no shortage of ideas. Nor does it lack remarkable companies. But we can become much better at getting capital and responsibility into the hands of people prepared to change them. Reflections from Atlantik-Bruecke's delegation trip to Milan by Moritz von Soden.</p>
<p>Der Beitrag <a href="https://www.atlantik-bruecke.org/en/milan-taught-us-a-lot-about-entrepreneurship/">Milan taught us a lot about entrepreneurship</a> erschien zuerst auf <a href="https://www.atlantik-bruecke.org/en">Atlantik-Brücke e.V.</a>.</p>
]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>Reflections from Atlantik-Bruecke&#8217;s delegation trip to Milan by Moritz von Soden.</em></p>
<p>What does a three-year-old AI start-up have in common with a family business that has survived for centuries? More than I would have expected. During Atlantik-Bruecke&#8217;s delegation trip to Milan, I had the opportunity to moderate the roundtable &#8220;Lombardy in Transition &#8211; Family Business, Innovation and the Future of German-Italian Cooperation.&#8221; My two guests represented very different worlds: Martina Domenicali, Co-Founder and CRO of the Milan-based AI company Lexroom, and Professor Josip Kotlar of Politecnico di Milano, whose research focuses on strategy, innovation, succession and family business.</p>
<p>We talked about venture capital and family capital, speed and patience, risk and responsibility &#8211; and about the difficult question of how companies manage change without losing what made them successful in the first place. When European start-ups begin to scale Martina&#8217;s story is remarkable. At 27, she has helped build Lexroom into one of Europe&#8217;s rapidly growing legal AI companies. The company has raised more than $75 million in funding. One part of our conversation stayed with me. In the early stages, capital can still be quite local. Entrepreneurs, investors and family offices in regions such as Lombardy are willing to back new ideas.</p>
<h4>Transatlantic investment is an enormous asset</h4>
<p>But once the amounts become larger and serious international scaling begins, US venture-capital funds become increasingly important. Lexroom itself is a good example: its $50 million Series B was led by Left Lane Capital, an investment firm headquartered in New York. There is nothing wrong with American capital. Transatlantic investment is an enormous asset. But it does raise an uncomfortable European question: Why are we still not better at mobilising our own capital when our most promising companies start to scale? Starting companies is one thing. Financing them all the way into global companies is another.</p>
<blockquote><p>&#8220;A company does not survive for 400 or 500 years by doing the same thing forever.&#8221;</p></blockquote>
<p>2 500 years &#8211; and still changing Professor Kotlar brought almost the opposite perspective. We discussed companies such as Acetaia Giusti, whose history reaches back to 1605, and Beretta, which celebrates 500 years of documented history in 2026. At first sight, they could hardly be further removed from a venture-backed AI company. But their longevity is not the result of avoiding change. A company does not survive for 400 or 500 years by doing the same thing forever. It survives by changing repeatedly without losing its identity. And this becomes particularly difficult during succession.</p>
<p>I know that tension from my own family business, Bornemann Gewindetechnik GmbH &amp; Co. KG, a third-generation German manufacturer specialising in customised threaded spindles and power-transmission threads. Bornemann Gewindetechnik is not 400 years old &#8211; we have been around for just over 60. But the basic conflict is familiar. The generation that has spent decades building a company naturally wants to protect it. It knows what can go wrong and has a strong sense of responsibility for what has been created. The next generation sees something else: technologies not yet adopted, investments not yet made, markets not yet entered. I experienced this myself during our succession.</p>
<h4>How to convince Karl-Heinz to digitalise his manufacturing company</h4>
<p>Years ago, I described this conflict through a fictional German SME owner I called &#8220;Karl-Heinz&#8221;: a successful, experienced entrepreneur who simply did not see why he should digitalise a manufacturing company that was already working perfectly well. The point was not that Karl-Heinz was wrong. Quite the opposite. If you have spent decades building something successfully, caution is rational. The challenge is to combine that experience with the willingness of the next generation to question what already works. My original article, &#8220;So überzeugen wir jeden Karl-Heinz &#8211; Digitalisierung bei KMUs&#8221;, explores this tension in more detail.</p>
<p>Two forms of capital for change This led me to perhaps the most interesting thought from our discussion. We normally treat venture capital and business succession as completely separate subjects. Perhaps we should not. Venture capital puts money and responsibility into the hands of people who want to build something new. Successful succession puts ownership, capital and responsibility into the hands of a new generation that may need to transform something that already exists. Both are, in a sense, capital for change.</p>
<blockquote><p>&#8220;Europe needs more capital for young companies that want to scale.But we also need to make it easier to finance succession.&#8221;</p></blockquote>
<p>Europe needs more capital for young companies that want to scale. But we also need to make it easier to finance succession, ownership transitions and investment in established SMEs. Because there is enormous innovative potential inside companies that already have customers, employees, technology, production capabilities and access to global markets. Sometimes the missing ingredient is not another technology. It is the willingness &#8211; and the ownership structure &#8211; to use it.</p>
<h4>Why Lombardy matters</h4>
<p>Lombardy was a particularly interesting place for this discussion. Milan combines finance, technology and entrepreneurship with one of Europe&#8217;s strongest industrial regions and a dense network of specialised and family-owned companies. For German SMEs, Northern Italy is also not simply an export market. It is already part of our industrial value chains. At Bornemann Gewindetechnik, for example, we source some of our steel from suppliers in Northern Italy.</p>
<p>The wider Atlantik-Bruecke programme in Milan therefore went well beyond family business and start-ups. Discussions with business and political leaders, including at Generali, addressed financial markets, industrial competitiveness, supply chains and the question of how Germany and Italy can strengthen Europe&#8217;s economic position in a changing transatlantic environment.</p>
<p>For me, the trip left one central question: Are we creating the conditions for the next generation of European entrepreneurs &#8211; whether they are founding a company or taking over a 60-, 100- or 500-year-old one &#8211; to move fast enough? Europe has no shortage of ideas. Nor does it lack remarkable companies. But we can become much better at getting capital and responsibility into the hands of people prepared to change them. That would be a good place to start.</p>
<p><em> About the author: </em><br />
<em>Moritz von Soden is Managing Director and third-generation owner of Bornemann Gewindetechnik GmbH &amp; Co. KG, a family-owned manufacturer, and a member of the SME Advisory Council of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs. </em></p>
<p>Disclaimer: This article was written with the help of AI.</p>
<p>Der Beitrag <a href="https://www.atlantik-bruecke.org/en/milan-taught-us-a-lot-about-entrepreneurship/">Milan taught us a lot about entrepreneurship</a> erschien zuerst auf <a href="https://www.atlantik-bruecke.org/en">Atlantik-Brücke e.V.</a>.</p>
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		<item>
		<title>“I strongly believe that FCAS has a future.”</title>
		<link>https://www.atlantik-bruecke.org/en/i-strongly-believe-that-fcas-has-a-future/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Pia Kauer]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 05 Jan 2026 10:45:49 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Europe Initiative]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Security & Geopolitics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bertrand de Cordue]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[European Defense]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[France]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jakob Flemming]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Louise Lüdke]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ODDO]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.atlantik-bruecke.org/?p=74578</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>Bertrand de Cordoue shares his assesment on German-French cooperation in driving European defense efforts in this video interview.</p>
<p>Der Beitrag <a href="https://www.atlantik-bruecke.org/en/i-strongly-believe-that-fcas-has-a-future/">“I strongly believe that FCAS has a future.”</a> erschien zuerst auf <a href="https://www.atlantik-bruecke.org/en">Atlantik-Brücke e.V.</a>.</p>
]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><iframe title="Interview with Bertrand de Cordoue" width="500" height="281" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/SE7Mp1HOEII?feature=oembed" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen></iframe></p>
<p>&#8220;If Germany and France can align on their defence priorities, this creates a momentum for the whole EU.&#8221;</p>
<p>Bertrand de Cordoue is a Senior Fellow at the Institut Jaques Delors and former Director of Research and Technology at the European Defence Agency and Director of Defence and Space at the Airbus Public Affairs department. In this interview, he shares his assesment on German-French cooperation in driving European defense efforts, the difficulties of activating private funds for defense expenses and the future of FCAS, the German-French-Spanish program for a Future Combat Air System.</p>
<p>Our team interviewed Bertrand de Cordoue at the edges of our joint conference with ODDO in Paris. Learn more about the conference <a href="https://www.atlantik-bruecke.org/en/defense-debt-draghi/">here</a>.</p>
<p>Der Beitrag <a href="https://www.atlantik-bruecke.org/en/i-strongly-believe-that-fcas-has-a-future/">“I strongly believe that FCAS has a future.”</a> erschien zuerst auf <a href="https://www.atlantik-bruecke.org/en">Atlantik-Brücke e.V.</a>.</p>
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		<item>
		<title>Defense, Debt, Draghi</title>
		<link>https://www.atlantik-bruecke.org/en/defense-debt-draghi/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[r.fehrenbach]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 18 Dec 2025 15:14:19 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Economy & Innovation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Europe Initiative]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Markets & Finance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Security & Geopolitics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[SubSub Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bertrand de Cordoue]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Christian Noyer]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Christoph Heusgen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FCAS]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[France]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Germany]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jakob Flemming]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jörg Kukies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Louise Lüdke]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ODDO BHF]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sylvie Goulard]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.atlantik-bruecke.org/?p=74495</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>The Atlantik-Brücke's first delegation trip to Paris made clear that Germany and France share at least one major challenge: to swiftly invest in defense and organize joint procurement amid fiscal constraints.</p>
<p>Der Beitrag <a href="https://www.atlantik-bruecke.org/en/defense-debt-draghi/">Defense, Debt, Draghi</a> erschien zuerst auf <a href="https://www.atlantik-bruecke.org/en">Atlantik-Brücke e.V.</a>.</p>
]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em><span lang="EN-US">On December 8 and 9, the Atlantik-Brücke brought 40 of its members to Paris. During a series of events, including a full-day conference hosted by ODDO BHF, the members discussed the domestic challenges that Germany and France share, the task of ramping up European defense, and Europe’s role in relation to the United States and the re-emerging geopolitical order. Distinguished speakers at the conference included former German Minister of Finance Jörg Kukies, former French Minister of Defense Sylvie Goulard, former Governor of the Banque de France Christian Noyer, and former German Ambassador to the UN Christoph Heusgen.</span></em></p>
<p><em><span lang="EN-US">This delegation trip was just the first step in the Atlantik-Brücke’s endeavor to facilitate European coordination on pressing geopolitical and geoeconomic matters. The initiative&#8217;s core idea is that transatlantic relations have not been purely bilateral for some time and that a strong, cohesive Europe is required for an equal transatlantic partnership. Therefore, the Atlantik-Brücke will continue its mission to promote European dialogue. Following the Paris trip, a delegation of Atlantik-Brücke members will visit Warsaw in March 2026.</span></em></p>
<p><span lang="EN-US">[related] Coincidentally, just days before the Paris delegation trip on December 5, after weeks of uncertainty and the constant threat of a serious government crisis, the German Bundestag approved the government coalition’s pension bill. However, it was no coincidence that pension reform was a recurring theme in Paris. Both Germany and France face the challenges of an aging society, an increasingly unsustainable and debt-financed pension system, and a political deadlock that prevents groundbreaking pension reform.</span></p>
<p><span lang="EN-US">Nicolas Dufourcq, director general of the French public investment bank Bpifrance, highlighted France&#8217;s excessive public spending on pensions (14% of its GDP) and the political circumstances that, in a recent compromise to avert a government collapse, resulted in temporarily suspending the pension reform and effectively freezing the retirement age below 63. While the recent debate over pension reform in Germany was less dramatic, Germany cannot escape the underlying problems of demographic change and unsustainable public finances – and neither can anyone else in Europe if they are to follow through on the often-cited Draghi report, restore European competitiveness and build a robust industrial defense base.</span></p>
<h4>Europe Cannot Afford Pessimism</h4>
<p><span lang="EN-US">In the realm of foreign policy, our visit to Paris underscored a shared awareness of the emergency that is currently defining Europe, as our guest Ms. Romatet-Espagne highlighted. This sense of urgency shaped the discussions at our joint conference at ODDO. The central question was no longer whether Europe must rearm, but rather, how it can do so and whether joint procurement can finally deliver. In this context, no keyword was mentioned more often in the debate than FCAS (Future Combat Air System). Once hailed as a model of European cooperation, the €100 billion Franco-German-Spanish fighter jet project now risks failure. Nevertheless, the conclusion was not resignation. As Bertrand de Cordoue rightly noted in <a href="https://www.atlantik-bruecke.org/en/i-strongly-believe-that-fcas-has-a-future/">our interview with him</a>, Europe cannot afford pessimism. Although the fragmented defense industry landscape will not disappear overnight, effective joint procurement remains the most promising path to faster, more efficient, and more credible European capabilities. Convincing societies to invest in defense amid fiscal constraints and aligning military requirements across nations are difficult tasks. However, avoiding these debates would only deepen Europe’s vulnerabilities. As Lithuanian Ambassador Arnoldas Pranckevičius made clear in his keynote speech, the time for endless strategizing has passed. Europe’s security now hinges on translating strategy into concrete action without further hesitation.</span></p>
<h4><span lang="EN-US">Reinforcing the European Momentum</span></h4>
<p><span lang="EN-US">In a world shaped by rivalry and disruption, Europe must reinforce its transatlantic ties and strengthen its other strategic relationships and friendships. French-German cooperation is essential for advancing Europe as a strategic actor and consolidating its newfound strength. As Chancellor Merz establishes Berlin as a European hub for major peace negotiations, Europe has an opportunity to shape outcomes rather than merely react. We at Atlantik-Brücke are committed to doing our part to reinforce this European momentum. Our inaugural European delegation trip to Paris was a milestone in our renewed European strategy. We will continue to strengthen ties across the continent and build a network of partners and allies prepared to address the challenges of our time. The time is now to reinterpret the transatlantic relationship and engage with our allies on an equal footing.</span></p>
<p>Der Beitrag <a href="https://www.atlantik-bruecke.org/en/defense-debt-draghi/">Defense, Debt, Draghi</a> erschien zuerst auf <a href="https://www.atlantik-bruecke.org/en">Atlantik-Brücke e.V.</a>.</p>
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		<item>
		<title>Europe’s unity is not an end in itself</title>
		<link>https://www.atlantik-bruecke.org/en/europes-unity-is-not-an-end-in-itself/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Lea Berger]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 25 Aug 2025 10:43:20 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Europe Initiative]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Security & Geopolitics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Teaser]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Außen- und Sicherheitspolitik]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Europa]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gemeinsame Sicherheits- und Verteidigungspolitik]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gerlinde Niehus]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[GLOBSEC]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Informelle Allianzen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ivan Mikloš]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jakob Flemming]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Julia Friedlander]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Koalition der Willigen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Konsensprinzip]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lucie Tungul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mehrheitsprinzip]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Norbert Röttgen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rosen Plevneliev]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Vit Novotný]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.atlantik-bruecke.org/?p=72065</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>The GLOBSEC Forum in Prague, themed “Commanding (in) Chaos: Time for Europe to Step Up,” featured Atlantik-Brücke’s first side session on Germany’s role in a capable Europe. Experts from four EU states and the US highlighted three key insights.</p>
<p>Der Beitrag <a href="https://www.atlantik-bruecke.org/en/europes-unity-is-not-an-end-in-itself/">Europe’s unity is not an end in itself</a> erschien zuerst auf <a href="https://www.atlantik-bruecke.org/en">Atlantik-Brücke e.V.</a>.</p>
]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p class="sr-only"><em><span style="font-size: 16px;">On June 13, 2025, Atlantik-Brücke, together with the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies, hosted a side session at the GLOBSEC Forum in Prague. Under the title </span>“Securing the Future of Europe in the New Global Order: Can Germany Lead Once Again?”<span style="font-size: 16px;"> our Deputy Chairman <strong>Dr. Norbert Röttgen</strong> and our CEO <strong>Julia Friedlander</strong> discussed with former Slovak Finance Minister <strong>Ivan Mikloš</strong>, former NATO Deputy Director <strong>Gerlinde Niehus</strong>, <strong>Vit Novotný</strong> from the Martens Centre, and former Bulgarian President <strong>Rosen Plevneliev</strong>. The discussion was moderated by <strong>Lucie Tungul</strong> from the Czech think tank TOPAZ.</span></em></p>
<p><em>By Jakob Flemming</em></p>
<p class="sr-only"><span style="font-size: 16px;">It was no coincidence that this year’s GLOBSEC Forum in Prague took place under the motto: </span><em style="font-size: 16px;" data-start="91" data-end="145">“Commanding (in) Chaos: Time for Europe to Step Up.”</em><span style="font-size: 16px;"> For months, one could hear in all European capitals that Europe’s time has come. It has long been clear that Europe must take on more responsibility in order to safeguard security and prosperity. Yet the questions remain: Is Europe capable of making the “step up”? And how much unity on the one hand, and leadership on the other, will be required?</span></p>
<p>These and other questions, as well as Germany’s contribution to a capable Europe, were at the heart of the side session. The contributions of experts from four EU member states and the United States led to three key insights:</p>
<h4>1. Europa is not united</h4>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">The demand that Europe must “speak with one voice” in foreign and security policy, but also in (external) economic policy, is neither new nor particularly controversial in the political mainstream. Former Chancellor A<a href="https://www.cducsu.de/themen/dr-angela-merkel-es-ist-entscheidend-dass-europa-mit-einer-stimme-spricht">ngela Merkel was already using this phrase in 2019. </a></span>Six years later, the formulation is probably even more common and is employed across the political spectrum, from <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7vhShKwy8us">EPP Chairman Manfred Weber</a> to the <a href="https://www.gruene.de/artikel/america-first-europa-united">Greens</a>. Behind it lies the conviction that only a Europe acting in unity can wield geopolitical weight.</p>
<p>[related]Yet the reality is often quite different: Europe does not speak with one voice on many issues. Slovakia blocked new sanctions against Russia for weeks; on the question of security guarantees for Ukraine, not only Hungary and Slovakia break ranks; Spain refuses to commit to NATO’s 5% goal; Germany and Poland are at odds over border controls; and in Middle East policy, Europe is split into at least two camps. Across nearly all policy areas, one thing is clear: genuine <em>unity</em> looks different.</p>
<h4>2. Europe does not unite through mere invocations.</h4>
<p>Following this assessment, the question arises: how can Europe’s unity be achieved? One thing became clear during the side session: the constant repetition of incantations such as <em data-start="180" data-end="220">“Europe must now speak with one voice”</em> or <em data-start="224" data-end="241">“Europe United”</em> in response to <em data-start="257" data-end="274">“America First”</em> will not bring about the desired outcome. The call to abolish the unanimity principle in favor of majority voting in the Common Security and Defense Policy may well be justified, but it is simply unrealistic.</p>
<p>Instead, participants voiced a desire for more leadership from the center of Europe, particularly from Germany. In the past, euphemisms such as <em data-start="144" data-end="171">“leading from the center”</em> or <em data-start="175" data-end="198">“leading from behind”</em> were often used. However, as one participant put it, what is truly needed is for Germany to lead plainly and directly from the front.</p>
<h4>3. Informal alliances or “coalitions of the willing” are new options.</h4>
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<p data-start="0" data-end="545" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="">Yet even the best leadership cannot create unity where fundamental conflicts of interest prevent it. Therefore, unity must not be an end in itself if it comes at the cost of a diluted or entirely unclear position. Where possible, the alternatives are informal alliances or “coalitions of the willing.” In foreign and security policy in general, in Ukraine and Russia policy in particular, and also in trade policy, the message from the discussion was that informal coalitions of interest should form—capable of acting decisively and effectively.</p>
<p data-start="0" data-end="545" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="">An example of this emerged recently during the visit of European heads of state and government, together with Ukrainian President Zelensky, to the White House. From this meeting, a coalition could take shape that is prepared to guarantee Ukraine’s security after the end of the war. This path is the right one, because perhaps the most important insight of the GLOBSEC side session was this: an informal European alliance that acts decisively can be stronger than an ostensibly united but paralyzed Europe.</p>
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<p>Der Beitrag <a href="https://www.atlantik-bruecke.org/en/europes-unity-is-not-an-end-in-itself/">Europe’s unity is not an end in itself</a> erschien zuerst auf <a href="https://www.atlantik-bruecke.org/en">Atlantik-Brücke e.V.</a>.</p>
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		<title>How to Trump-proof Europe</title>
		<link>https://www.atlantik-bruecke.org/en/how-to-trump-proof-europe/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[p.busse]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 19 Feb 2024 13:32:18 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Europe Initiative]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Security & Geopolitics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sub-Featured]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.atlantik-bruecke.org/?p=60300</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>If the former US President gets elected one more time, the European Union needs to be prepared in several key policy fields to sustain the transatlantic partnership, writes the author Steven Hill in his analysis.</p>
<p>Der Beitrag <a href="https://www.atlantik-bruecke.org/en/how-to-trump-proof-europe/">How to Trump-proof Europe</a> erschien zuerst auf <a href="https://www.atlantik-bruecke.org/en">Atlantik-Brücke e.V.</a>.</p>
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										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>by Steven Hill</em></p>
<p>The US presidential election is fast approaching, with anxiety rising on both sides of the Atlantic. The political resurgence of the orange-haired, hockey-masked, <a title="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VNOgh2tyy4g" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VNOgh2tyy4g" data-outlook-id="af8d5a4a-faec-4faa-b181-d9b4ed55e79e">Friday the 13th</a> assailant who keeps rising again and again has everyone on the edge of their seat.</p>
<p>2024 already is looking to be a challenging year, from Ukraine to Gaza to North Korea. What’s at stake for Europe if the <a title="https://www.instagram.com/realdonaldtrump/?hl=en" href="https://www.instagram.com/realdonaldtrump/?hl=en" data-outlook-id="512230d8-fb8d-4d07-a2bb-59b15ea8b2ba">Real Donald Trump</a> once again becomes president?</p>
<p>[related]Pretty much everything. Russia, Ukraine, NATO, climate change, bilateral trade, the Middle East, China, Viktor Orban, digital security, the very stability of the European Union itself, all of these major policy dimensions will be dramatically impacted if Trump returns. Richard Haas, President of the Council on Foreign Relations, says even Russian interference in American democracy didn’t stop Trump “from being less confrontational with Putin <a title="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-08-11/present-disruption" href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-08-11/present-disruption" data-outlook-id="e349de50-27ee-498d-96a2-d7c4d9168eb1">than with European leaders</a>.”</p>
<p>And this time around it will be the Donald 2.0 version. Rather than Trump having been chastened by the disaster of his first term, instead his recent speeches and social media messages show that he has become a Macbeth-like figure, consumed by sociopathic fantasies of revenge and domination of all who do not genuflect to his authority – whether individuals or nations. He has said that in a second term, his alliances and appointments would be prized above all for their loyalty to his rule and dictates.</p>
<p>How might this affect the EU’s security and economy?</p>
<p>Let me count the ways. In a replay of his previous “America First” policy, Trump has suggested that if he is reelected in November 2024, he will <a title="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jcNzoONhrmE" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jcNzoONhrmE" data-outlook-id="adc090c8-8096-4151-9bfa-43a6e3ed9507">negotiate with</a> Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine <a title="https://www.independent.co.uk/tv/news/donald-trump-russia-ukraine-war-b2332214.html" href="https://www.independent.co.uk/tv/news/donald-trump-russia-ukraine-war-b2332214.html" data-outlook-id="c331c9b3-1706-47d9-89b7-0708596840fa">“in 24 hours</a>,” and demand that Europe <a title="https://news.yahoo.com/trump-says-d-ask-europe-201827808.html" href="https://news.yahoo.com/trump-says-d-ask-europe-201827808.html" data-outlook-id="d2d31212-4be6-4375-9001-2c680aa48a7e">reimburse the US</a> for ammunition used in Ukraine and kill Ukraine’s bid for NATO admission. Author and foreign policy expert Anne Applebaum says Trump may well <a title="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2024/01/trump-2024-reelection-pull-out-of-nato-membership/676120/" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2024/01/trump-2024-reelection-pull-out-of-nato-membership/676120/" data-outlook-id="02fc6ce5-51b9-4097-8f5a-bfb4f749fbfe">abandon NATO entirely</a>,  and “faith in collective defense could evaporate quickly…The prospect of America leaving NATO would force many European countries to keep their military resources at home; after all, they might soon face invasion as well.” Most recently, Trump outrageously claimed that he threatened NATO allies who he viewed as delinquent in paying NATO support with <a title="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/12/us/politics/trump-nato-republicans.html" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/12/us/politics/trump-nato-republicans.html" data-outlook-id="a3358d07-40d5-46a2-8a74-b688078dea51">encouraging Russia to attack them</a>.</p>
<p>Trump has also said he will withdraw from all <a title="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/12/11/trump-climate-talks-cop28-dubai/" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/12/11/trump-climate-talks-cop28-dubai/" data-outlook-id="fd8407aa-95ba-44d2-b982-24764102aea1">climate agreements</a>, and impose a <a title="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/08/22/trump-trade-tariffs/" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/08/22/trump-trade-tariffs/" data-outlook-id="e5fc97b2-eff7-4b36-bb6a-db054c7c2de0">ten percent tariff</a> on all imports from Europe and other nations, even if it unleashes a global economic war. That’s no small threat, since the EU’s <a title="https://european-union.europa.eu/principles-countries-history/key-facts-and-figures/economy_en" href="https://european-union.europa.eu/principles-countries-history/key-facts-and-figures/economy_en" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-outlook-id="24624524-e1a9-4cdc-8826-84cb9f050351">$16 trillion economy</a> is heavily reliant on trade with the United States. The US is the EU’s biggest source of foreign direct investment and the <a title="https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/europe-middle-east/europe/european-union#:~:text=U.S.%20goods%20and%20services%20trade,was%20%24131.3%20billion%20in%202022." href="https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/europe-middle-east/europe/european-union#:~:text=U.S.%20goods%20and%20services%20trade,was%20%24131.3%20billion%20in%202022." data-outlook-id="15c04ff8-2582-461e-a8c3-02e6bef8882e">$1.3 trillion in trade</a>between America and the EU is the largest bilateral trade and investment relationship in the world, <a title="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/eu-foreign-policy-chief-in-china-for-high-level-talks/3017550" href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/eu-foreign-policy-chief-in-china-for-high-level-talks/3017550" data-outlook-id="1c60a0be-a11b-4e1b-8939-58b8aafbad20">40 percent greater</a> than the EU’s trade with China.</p>
<p>In short, Trump is already threatening to overturn the transatlantic relationship and the global order even more than he did last time. Surrounded by sycophants and loyalists, there would be no <a title="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/05/opinion/trump-white-house-anonymous-resistance.html" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/05/opinion/trump-white-house-anonymous-resistance.html" data-outlook-id="e17f7b82-0b39-4f5a-9373-48c68f0429bc">“adults in the room”</a> to rein in the <a title="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AlNU10Hkiu8" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AlNU10Hkiu8" data-outlook-id="b51b6d8a-0921-40b1-bb50-a410aeb83db3">tantruming childish Trump</a>.</p>
<h3>Key areas where the EU needs to prepare for the worst</h3>
<p>So what can Europeans do to prepare – to “Trump-proof” Europe, as it has been called? It won’t be easy. Europe will have to be more united than ever. And it will have to fill the enormous American leadership void, learning to help Ukraine defend against Russia, promote human rights, keep open trade flowing, safeguard its own borders (including its digital borders), fight climate change and champion democracy. Here are some key areas where the EU needs to prepare for the worst, even as it hopes for the best:</p>
<p><strong>Trade:</strong> Europe can shield itself from Trump’s protectionist policies by forging trade agreements with other nations and regional markets. It also should deepen its single market, particularly the financial, digital and service sectors. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde says a <a title="https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/30/business/lagarde-trump-europe-economy/index.html" href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/30/business/lagarde-trump-europe-economy/index.html" data-outlook-id="c0b48f86-dd5e-4406-b4c9-43fb5c85d203">more robust single market</a> that better ensures the free movement of goods, services, people and capital across 27 member states would make it easier for smaller companies to raise funding and “facilitate and encourage innovation.”</p>
<p><strong>China: </strong>Trump might well threaten sanctions on major telecom operators who use Chinese equipment, so the EU should anticipate that possibility by reducing any critical dependencies on Chinese telecommunications products. Failure to do that might result in fragmentation of the EU telecommunications market.</p>
<p><strong>Energy: </strong>On the plus side, the share of EU pipeline gas imports from Russia declined from over 40 percent in 2021 to <a title="https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/infographics/eu-gas-supply/#:~:text=Bar%20chart%20showing%20how%20gas,to%2056.2%20bcm%20in%202023." href="https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/infographics/eu-gas-supply/#:~:text=Bar%20chart%20showing%20how%20gas,to%2056.2%20bcm%20in%202023." data-outlook-id="6ce13ab5-6174-4777-b0cd-98a345bee1c4">about 8 percent in 2023</a>. But in the meantime, imports of LNG gas from the US tripled to over 50 percent of LNG gas imports. Might Trump pull a Putin on the EU? The EU must speed up its world-leading efforts at conservation and producing renewable energy.</p>
<p><strong>Digital security:</strong> EU member states manufacture relatively little of their own cloud-computing systems and telecommunications infrastructure. They depend heavily on both American and Chinese products. Fortunately France, Italy, and Spain are leading by accessing cloud-computing services which are provided by firms headquartered in the EU.</p>
<p><strong>Effective governance:</strong> The EU would be wise to address the institutional weaknesses that limit its ability to lead on the global stage. These vulnerabilities include requirements for unanimous vote approvals rather than majority votes. Francis Fukuyama, noted geopolitical strategist and Stanford University professor, laments how the EU’s consensus requirements “<a title="https://www.americanpurpose.com/articles/not-a-serious-country/" href="https://www.americanpurpose.com/articles/not-a-serious-country/" data-outlook-id="af1b2c55-ba2e-4131-bdf4-8aedce7bb3f4">allow a single small country</a> to block action by the whole.” Encouraged by Trump, Viktor Orban can be counted on to wield his frequent veto to undermine the EU unless the decision-making rules are changed.</p>
<p><strong>Military and defense:</strong> This is a tricky one. A number of defense experts and strategists strongly recommend that Europeans “establish a <a title="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/trump-proofing-europe" href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/trump-proofing-europe" data-outlook-id="a53e4f7b-1128-4663-a447-5bab5163da91">level of military readiness</a> it has not possessed since the Cold War” and become <a title="https://www.dw.com/en/can-europe-cope-with-another-donald-trump-presidency/a-68074784" href="https://www.dw.com/en/can-europe-cope-with-another-donald-trump-presidency/a-68074784" data-outlook-id="a3723063-088b-4099-a062-eb2c83c7947b">”a strong actor, militarily</a>.” But the EU does not have a unitary federal government with a highly visible president who is viewed as the legitimate chief of the armed forces and whose military authority is recognized by all member states. So this comes off as wishful thinking. Nevertheless, in the middle of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Europe’s combined military and financial aid to Ukraine <a title="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/trump-proofing-europe" href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/trump-proofing-europe" data-outlook-id="8fcd4901-57d9-4659-82b3-03aace583055">now exceeds</a> that of the United States.</p>
<p><strong>European values:</strong> Perhaps the greatest threat that Trump represents to Europe is to its values: multilateralism, environmental responsiveness, the rule of law, and democracy itself. Through his actions and his rhetorical attacks, Trump tramples on these principles and sways public opinion. The EU needs to think hard about how, in order to withstand that pressure internally, it is necessary to defend the rule of law within its own borders.</p>
<p>In short, the EU member states must act as unified as possible. Is that possible?</p>
<h3>Past crises have unified Europe</h3>
<p>Europe has often needed a crisis to mobilize and to some extent unify its fractious member states. The European debt crisis in 2009-10 motivated the EU toward greater levels of federalism and to more fully integrate its banking systems. The immigration crisis in 2015-16 forced Europe to deal with its border issues and confront issues of member state solidarity. In the COVID-19 pandemic, member states empowered the EU Commission to buy vaccines, and for the first time the commission borrowed on a large scale to fund Europe’s economic recovery.</p>
<figure id="attachment_59273" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-59273" style="width: 209px" class="wp-caption alignleft"><img fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" class=" wp-image-59273" src="https://www.atlantik-bruecke.org/app/uploads/SJH-AAB-headshot-hires-614x1000.jpg" alt="" width="209" height="341" srcset="https://www.atlantik-bruecke.org/app/uploads/SJH-AAB-headshot-hires-614x1000.jpg 614w, https://www.atlantik-bruecke.org/app/uploads/SJH-AAB-headshot-hires-922x1500.jpg 922w, https://www.atlantik-bruecke.org/app/uploads/SJH-AAB-headshot-hires-944x1536.jpg 944w, https://www.atlantik-bruecke.org/app/uploads/SJH-AAB-headshot-hires-1258x2048.jpg 1258w, https://www.atlantik-bruecke.org/app/uploads/SJH-AAB-headshot-hires-scaled.jpg 1573w" sizes="(max-width: 209px) 100vw, 209px" /><figcaption id="caption-attachment-59273" class="wp-caption-text">Steven Hill</figcaption></figure>
<p>In a counter-intuitive way, Trump 1.0 also had a galvanizing effect on Europe, spurring efforts toward greater self-reliance. Trump’s previous tariffs on EU steel and aluminum not only mobilized the EU to respond with tariffs on $3 billion worth of US goods, but to strengthen the euro by further integrating EU banks and financial systems. It led to the signing of trade agreements with new partners in Africa, Asia, and Latin America.</p>
<p>Trump’s threats over Europe’s defense spending levels nudged the EU to help reinvigorate NATO under the Biden administration, and led to institutional incentives for member states to spend more on defense. In response to Trump, the EU created the European Peace Facility that supports the armies of partner countries and EU member states with infrastructure, training and equipment. When Putin invaded Ukraine in 2022, the EPF was employed to provide <a title="https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2023/11/28/european-peace-facility-council-greenlights-further-funding-for-training-of-the-ukrainian-armed-forces-under-eumam-ukraine/" href="https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2023/11/28/european-peace-facility-council-greenlights-further-funding-for-training-of-the-ukrainian-armed-forces-under-eumam-ukraine/" data-outlook-id="3a799c42-3859-4088-b8e2-f74661517ecc">military aid to Ukraine</a>.</p>
<p>So EU unity is the best remedy to any Trump 2.0 reckless brinksmanship. But what could incentivize more unity?</p>
<p>Josef Braml from the Institute for Strategic, Political, Security and Economic Consultancy in Berlin recommends that the EU incur debt together to build more defense capability and European cohesion. &#8220;Europe must act as a united player. We have to <a title="https://www.dw.com/en/can-europe-cope-with-another-donald-trump-presidency/a-68074784" href="https://www.dw.com/en/can-europe-cope-with-another-donald-trump-presidency/a-68074784" data-outlook-id="c2f7efed-cf12-445c-b594-9f08057a7803">think bigger</a>,” he says, to “support individual states financially, and impose conditions on them in return. With money from shared European borrowing, we could also afford our own defense.&#8221;</p>
<p>In that light, Trump&#8217;s reelection becomes a test not only for transatlantic relations, but also for European cohesion. For the foreseeable future, Europeans will have to wonder which America will emerge next November – and what Europe will emerge in response.</p>
<p><em>Steven Hill is editor and main author of <a href="https://democracysos.substack.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">DemocracySOS</a> and the author of the book  <a title="https://www.ucpress.edu/book/9780520261372/europes-promise" href="https://www.ucpress.edu/book/9780520261372/europes-promise" target="_blank" rel="noopener">“Europe’s Promise: Why the European Way Is the Best Hope In an Insecure Age.”</a>  You can reach out to him under @StevenHill1776.</em></p>
<p>Der Beitrag <a href="https://www.atlantik-bruecke.org/en/how-to-trump-proof-europe/">How to Trump-proof Europe</a> erschien zuerst auf <a href="https://www.atlantik-bruecke.org/en">Atlantik-Brücke e.V.</a>.</p>
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