General Hodges, President-elect Trump has regularly criticized NATO, especially when it comes to the financial imbalance of the national defense budgets in the USA and in Europe. How will the U.S. commitment to the alliance alter under the new Trump administration and what would this mean for NATO’s credibility? 

It’s not helpful that the incoming President creates doubt and uncertainty about US’s commitment to NATO and Europe. But my sense is that he won’t actually pull out of NATO or turn his back on NATO because enough of the GOP leadership in Congress understand how important it is for US security and prosperity and I think President Trump will as well. But he’ll continue to be harsh and demanding in his interactions with some Allies, especially since he believes he’s the one who forced many countries to increase spending.

How will the new NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and the new U.S. President get along? 

I think Secretary General Rutte will do very well. He’s already demonstrated a strong, savvy understanding of Mr Trump and his visit to Mar a Lago was a good example. But he’ll be tested throughout, especially if nations like Germany continue to fall short. And a divergence on how to deal with Ukraine and Russia could be a source of friction.

How may Trump’s cabinet picks, Marco Rubio for Secretary of State and Mike Waltz for National Security Advisor, affect the incoming administration’s commitment to the transatlantic alliance? 

The good news is that both Rubio and Waltz are pro-NATO and Russia hawks. But will they be able to achieve policy successes if others who influence Mr Trump disagree, for example, DJT Jr, Elon Musk, etc?

Trump has already announced to once again leave the Paris Climate Agreement. Which value will alliances in general, treaties, Western and rules-based institutions have, if the United States pulls this democratic international framework into question? 

I think most nations and agencies are already expecting it and should be adapting, preparing for it.

Would Germany, the United Kingdom, France and other major European countries be able and willing to tremendously increase their military support for Ukraine, if the new Trump administration decided to stop supporting Ukraine in its war against Russia? 

They certainly have the economic power to do it…but I haven’t seen that they have the political will to do this. But I would expect that countries like Poland, Italy, Finland and the Baltic countries will do this…they do have the political will…because they are not confused about the threat from Russia. The center of gravity of resistance to Russia is shifting to the East.

Which political approach will the new U.S. government most probably follow in Israel’s war against Hamas, Hezbollah, Huthis and other proxies from Iran in the Middle East? 

I don’t know yet…signals from Trump about not getting involved in the post-Assad Syria are not encouraging. But clearly we should try to influence what happens there…no Russian or Chinese influence, no export of terrorism, and return of Syrian refugees to Syria. We should strengthen our relationship with our NATO Ally, Turkey. And of course I expect a Trump Administration to be very close to the Netanyahu government in Israel.

Since America’s pivot to Asia the Indo-Pacific has become the most important world region for the USA from a geopolitical and geostrategic standpoint. What U.S. strategy for China do you expect in the next four years with regard to the rising tensions surrounding Taiwan? 

This is not clear…there is a divide even in the GOP about how to do this. A successful deterrence of China will require military as well as economic and diplomatic strength, all of which requires collaboration with Allies, including our European allies. But the best way to deter China now is for them to see that we are willing to do whatever it takes to help Ukraine stop Russia. I fear that China sees that we in the West don’t have the political Will to defeat Russia and so they are emboldened to do what they want to challenge the international rules based order in the IndoPacific region.

Frederick Benjamin “Ben” Hodges III is a retired United States Army officer who served as the commanding general of United States Army Europe. He has been a Senior Advisor to Human Rights First since June 2022 and also serves as NATO’s Senior Mentor for Logistics. He previously held the Pershing Chair in Strategic Studies at the Center for European Policy Analysis. He retired from the U.S. Army in January 2018, is a board member of Atlantik-Brücke, and lives with his wife in Frankfurt, Germany.

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Mr. Hodges, free and safe international shipping routes are essential for peace and stability in the globalized world. Now the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz poses a severe threat for international oil tankers. Are you disappointed about the German government’s decision not to join a combined British-U.S. naval mission?

Yes, I am.  Germany is a long-time, reliable ally, so I’m a bit surprised at their reluctance, thus far, to join this mission. German leadership is essential for stability in many of the critical regions of the world, including the Middle East. The brand name, “Made in Germany”, is respected around the world and other nations take note when Germany decides to act or not. Whether in the construct of a multilateral coalition, NATO, or a European construct, Germany would add real value to this mission in terms of diplomatic, information space, and economic value as well as military support.

Surprisingly, Germany is also a “Non-participant” in the four EU PESCO (Permanent Structured Cooperation) projects that are directly related to maritime security. This seems unusual for a leading nation in the EU and NATO and a global economic trading power that depends on freedom of navigation for its economic security and prosperity.

Is U.S. President Trump’s “policy of maximum pressure” vis-à-vis Iran and the future of the Nuclear Agreement (JCPOA) an effective way to guarantee peace in this region?

[related]I would have preferred that the USA remain in the JCPOA. Not because it was a good or the best agreement, but because I believe in the value of having and working with strong allies towards a common objective. The JCPOA was inadequate to address all of the key security issues. And the current Iranian regime has clearly been creating instability in the region in support of various extremist organizations for years. Many American soldiers died in Iraq as a result of EFP (explosively formed penetrator) IED’s (improvised explosive devices) which were manufactured in Iran and supplied to insurgent forces. But by working closely with the leading nations of the international community, especially Germany, I believe we could have continued to press Iran using all the elements of national strength and of the coalition’s power. This is what we call the DIME construct (diplomacy, information, military, and economy).

Stability in the region is a necessary precursor for prosperity in the region and, because of the importance of energy resources, much of the rest of the world. The best way to guarantee stability in the region is to involve all the parties interested in the process, to enforce international law, and to maintain a united front.

What are your hopes for transatlantic cooperation in the Middle East in the upcoming weeks and months?

Transatlantic cooperation is essential, there is no other way to achieve meaningful, lasting results. NATO is the most successful alliance in the history of the world. There is a reason it has continued to grow since its founding in 1949. As Secretary General Stoltenberg recently said, NATO means that every member has 28 other friends with common values and shared interests.

None of us has adequate capabilities in any of the DIME domains to go it alone. And we are indeed much stronger together, when we can prevent potential adversaries or the relevant regional parties from driving wedges between us.

Germany has a key role to play in the region not only because of its economic requirements and the need for energy for customers of the German auto industry, but because of its moral authority. Germany is respected around the world and currently has a key seat on the UN Security Council. This, combined with its leadership in the EU, make it the nation that I believe is America’s most important ally. I hope that my country will pursue Germany as our most important ally. I also hope that Germany will step up to accept a leading role in the region.

Learn more about Ben Hodges on his CEPA-profile site.

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