What’s next?

With regard to a future Europe, we must abandon the idea that Western hegemony can be sustained. There will no longer be an “old liberal” Europe following in the slipstream of the USA, even if many wish for this out of fear of economic decline and loss of political significance. 

By Sigmar Gabriel and Julia Friedlander

In October, a delegation from Atlantik-Brücke visited the NATO headquarters in Brussels. During our conversations on site, we discussed the most pressing challenges for the alliance, the state of the transatlantic partnership, and Germany’s renewed commitment to strengthening its defense sector. We also gained insights into how the startup ecosystem can contribute to building Germany’s defense capacity by providing specific technologies to the state. After the exchange, it was clear to all of us that the world in which we had grown comfortable over past decades no longer exists. But we also recognized that this new world simultaneously sparks the desire to solve problems and invent new solutions.

NATO’s primary focus is once again on deterring potential adversary Russia, to prevent any aggression against Europe. In some ways, it feels as if we have returned to a Cold War mindset. We are at a historic crossroads, that much is certain. But what, you may ask, comes next?

Transatlantic Relations Remain Strained

The transatlantic partnership has been notably strained under US President Donald Trump, as core interests and priorities continue to diverge. The introduction of special tariffs and Trump’s rigid “America First” trade policy have placed significant strain on economic relations. At the same time, Trump openly questions Europe’s defense capabilities. Even after an increase in defense spending by European partners to five percent of GDP, there is considerable uncertainty about the USA’s future role in NATO.

Europe, increasingly faced with security policy challenges—such as Russia’s repeated provocations on NATO’s eastern flank—must urgently strengthen its defense capabilities, yet finds itself under internal political pressure, not least due to the rise of populist movements. Not only in defense policy but also economically, Europe remains dependent on transatlantic ties. It appears likely that the EU’s strategic direction will remain fragmented in the future. While pragmatic cooperation in security crises is temporarily conceivable, in the long term, intraregional divisions will prove too burdensome.

Russia and the Challenge to NATO

Putin currently sees no reason to change his strategy. Peace in Ukraine is unlikely to materialize soon. Russia will continue to be at the center of European security concerns in the coming years. Through repeated border violations—including drone attacks on NATO territory—Moscow is testing the political and military cohesion of the West and is increasingly relying on hybrid warfare. Ultimately, Moscow aims to establish a regional zone of influence modeled along the borders of the former Soviet Union. This not only strains NATO, but also significantly shapes European future planning. At the same time, Russia is deepening its cooperation with countries such as North Korea and China in an effort to form multipolar power blocs against the West. Against this backdrop, Germany is currently undergoing a security policy paradigm shift. The federal government under Chancellor Friedrich Merz aims to make the Bundeswehr Europe’s strongest conventional army in the coming years—a strategic objective backed by a significantly increased budget, broad structural reforms, and the recruitment of new personnel.

The Global South and New Independence

In the Global South, claims to leadership are becoming louder, corresponding to the redistribution of economic power. Countries in Latin America, Africa, and Asia are increasingly pursuing independent development paths and partnerships. China, of course, is a key anchor here, massively expanding its infrastructure projects and trade links. But Donald Trump’s aggressive trade and migration policies have also forced other countries into new cooperations. At the end of August, Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met in China. The three countries promised deeper geopolitical cooperation. We do not know whether this anti-Western signal marks the start of a genuine realignment between India and China. What is clear is that a country like India is trying to maintain its geostrategic balance with radical pragmatism, making Europe’s approach to values-based foreign policy seem less like yesterday’s program and more like something from a past century.

Middle East: Instability and New Power Structures

The Middle East—especially Israel, Iran, and Gaza—remains a region of geopolitical unrest, yet with continually shifting spheres of influence. While the USA, despite its close ties with Israel, seeks closer relations with Gulf states, regional powers such as Saudi Arabia and Turkey continue to gain geopolitical significance. The constant in this ever-changing region between Syria and Yemen is its permanent state of unrest, an imbalance in which political power can fragment and reassemble at any given moment. The diplomatic role of Germany should not be underestimated in this power carousel. Israel remains the focus of international attention as it continues to face persistent instability in Gaza. For Europe, the pressing question is how to uphold the fragile ceasefire and ensure humanitarian access. Germany remains explicitly committed to Israel’s security and existence as part of its national raison d’état, a position emphasized by Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul. At the same time, many voices in politics and society call for a more nuanced debate, considering the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and growing political pressures within Europe.

AI and Fears of a Crash

Looking to the future today must extend not only to the political but—above all—to the technological realm. The rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) contains the promise of rapid technological progress with implications for the distribution of geopolitical power. In the defense sector especially, AI has become a key topic; the Bundeswehr and its European partners are investing heavily in AI-driven systems—from automated analysis of satellite and drone data to optimized logistics processes and autonomous defense systems and scenario analysis. However, the use of AI requires ongoing regulatory and ethical oversight, especially as military applications increasingly push into sensitive dual-use areas. Meanwhile, global competition for semiconductors and access to critical raw materials—especially rare earths—is heightening geopolitical uncertainty.

China, above all, uses export controls as a strategic lever against Western industrialized nations, whose high-tech and defense industries depend on secure supplies. The dependence of Europe and the USA on a few supplier countries carries substantial risks for industrial value chains, defense capabilities, and economic sovereignty. Diversifying supply chains, investing in technological innovation, and forging targeted resource partnerships are therefore central tasks for the future, vital for securing Europe’s long-term prosperity and agency.

AI also carries the risk of an investment bubble that could threaten the American—and thus global—financial system. Credit-financed investments in gigantic infrastructure such as data centers and specialized chips already account for a major portion of US economic growth. If they fail to meet expectations, a chain reaction could ensue, spreading from the tech sector to finance and, ultimately, the real economy. Such a crisis would have far-reaching repercussions for consumer confidence, credit markets, and economic growth. Political support and regulatory measures will therefore be crucial for managing risks and unlocking the sustainable potential of AI.

The Threat of Authoritarian Forces

Donald Trump has fundamentally changed the transatlantic partnership. Hoping for a time after Trump is, however, not sound advice for Europe. For the current situation facing Europeans reveals a structural dilemma: the tactic of delaying conflict through appeasing the US President remains a risky and potentially deceptive strategy—regardless of who is in power in Washington. Europe’s security architecture is still too dependent on the goodwill of the USA; true European sovereignty is not on the horizon.

Domestic American attacks on democracy—from voting rights restrictions to the erosion of rule-of-law institutions—already have effects beyond the United States. They could serve as blueprints for authoritarian forces in other Western democracies. Polarization and rising populism are weakening social cohesion and, with it, the resilience of democratic systems worldwide. Europe’s most important task is thus to learn from the dangers in the USA: by fostering independent institutions, resilient communications structures, and a willingness to take its own responsibility in security and defense policy.

The Future Is Multipolar and Fragmented

With regard to a future Europe, we must abandon the idea that Western hegemony can be sustained. There will no longer be an “old liberal” Europe following in the slipstream of the USA, even if many wish for this out of fear of economic decline and loss of political significance. In an era when China and the Global South are gaining strength, it is becoming ever harder for Europe to defend its interests. But we should finally come to terms with the seriousness of the situation and face the multipolar world order, rather than try to resist it. The coming upheaval will be at least as momentous as the dawn of the age of industrialization. We should strive to actively shape it, not oppose it.

Atlantik-Brücke can count itself fortunate to have access to a strong network in this fragmented world. We are ready to help solve problems and provide orientation. As always, we count on your commitment and expertise!

[Disclaimer: This text was originally written in German. The English translation was produced with the help of AI.]